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Tornadoes of 2018 (Wolf)
This page documents notable tornadoes and tornado outbreaks worldwide in 2018. Strong and destructive tornadoes form most frequently in the United States, Bangladesh, and Eastern India, but they can occur almost anywhere under the right conditions. Tornadoes also develop occasionally in southern Canada during the Northern Hemisphere's summer and somewhat regularly at other times of the year across Europe, Asia, and Australia. Tornadic events are often accompanied with other forms of severe weather, including strong thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail. There was 2,565 reports of Tornadoes in 2018, of which 1,881 have been confirmed. A total of over 7,000 deaths have occurred worldwide in 2018: >7,000 in the the United States, three in Argentina, and one in Germany. The death toll in the United States is due in large part to several large outbreaks in May and outbreaks in June, with primary events being the Houston-Pasadena Tornado and accompanying 2018 Super Outbreak. There was 43 EF5 Tornadoes in 2018, compared to the 59 of the prior 67 years combined, with 33 of those occurring during a single outbreak. With over 7,000 deaths, 2018 is the deadliest tornado year on record, exponentially eclipsing the previous record of >1,350 in 1989 worldwide, and >752 in 1925 in the United States, due in large part to the 2018 Super Outbreak and the Houston-Pasadena EF5, of which the Houston EF5 killed 5,797 people as it trekked 104 miles SE from Brenham to Seabrook, TX. Season Summary The season started off unusually quiet. Both January and February went tornado free, the 5th and 6th times a month has ever gone tornado free, and the first time in history since reliable records began in 1950 that two months went tornado free back to back. March also saw incredibly lackluster activity, with an incredibly low count of 14 tornadoes. This left many meteorologists concerned. Trends showed that following rather inactive first quarters, seasons tend to be explosive in the 2nd quarter. 2010 and 2011 were the best examples of this, and as a result, alert was heightened for the remained of the year going into April. Models in March showed April beginning rather quietly. This, however, was soon ended when models in the final days of March showed a system with decent parameters sweeping through the AR-OK-LA-TX region around the 6th and 7th. The resulting outbreak proved significant, as 55 tornadoes tore through a rather localized area in Louisiana and bits of Arkansas. Of these was an EF4 that killed one in Shreveport. April would go on to have two more large outbreaks, with the final week being a prime breeding ground for isolated supercells. In all, 205 tornadoes were confirmed in April, well above the average for the month, and models showed May to be far more active, with potentially continuous activity for the first half of the month. May immediately started with a bang. May 1st featured an outbreak of 92 tornadoes in the south along a sluggish trough. This activity would continue unbroken throughout May 2nd and 3rd, with the three days altogether producing 552 tornadoes, the most for a continuous outbreak. May 2nd and 3rd both saw over 200 tornadoes within a 24 hour timespan; the event dubbed the 2018 Super Outbreak almost immediately afterwards. More than 7,000 died from the storms, and nearly $100 Billion USD in damages were incurred by mother nature's wrath. With 69 violent tornadoes, the 2018 Super Outbreak will go down in history as the most violent outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded. May activity would continue in stride post-outbreak, with barely a break in between events. The final week of May saw a continuous week of activity going into June, such as April did going into May. Over 200 tornadoes touched down in this period, including several violent storms, claiming the lives of 201 people. Just like April and May, June was also highly active, with 427 confimred tornadoes throughout the month. This was due in large part to consistent activity throughout the first half of the month, with two extensive outbreak sequences dominating the first three weeks. With over 600 tornado reports, those three weeks of June were the most active for the month on record. Between the two outbreak sequences, 377 tornadoes touched down, including 18 violent. The final week of June saw an outbreak generated by the landfall of Tropical Storm ______, which produced 34 tornadoes due to it merging with a strong trough in central Texas, generating a midwest outbreak that took the lives of 4 people. Despite the extreme activity of the past three months, the season would enter a quiet spell for the rest of the summer. Synoptically, July and August were increadibly inactive. July saw only 48 tornadoes throughout the entire month, though this includes a rogue EF4 that terrorized some farmland in Iowa. August, despite being inactive synoptically, was met with some rather large outbreaks due to landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms, giving the month a grand total of 112. September was also inactive synoptically, but same as August in having most of its grand total come from landfalling tropical cyclones instead, giving the month a total of 74 tornadoes. October only had 32 tornadoes after a storm complex moved through in the middle of the month, and November only had 41 recorded touch downs due to a late month outbreak. December rounded off the year with a total of 39 tornadoes. This put the final count for the year at 1,881 confirmed tornadoes, surpassing the 1,817 of 2004. 2018 is also by far the most violent season with 97 EF4/5 tornadoes touching down. The violent tornadoes of the year account for 99% of the 7,____ fatalities and over $90 Billion USD in damages. Tornado Count Events January There was only 1 tornado reported in January, of which has not been confirmed. This puts the tornado count for the month at 0, making it the 5th time a month has gone tornado free since 1950. February There were no tornadoes reported in February as a persistent cold airmass had stalled over the country, producing record low high and low temperatures for the month, the warmest day of the month being 74°F in Miami on Feb. 21. This is the only time since 1950 where two months in a row went tornado free, due to a powerful La Nina that has been persisting since November. March There were 21 Tornadoes reported in March, of which only 14 have been confirmed. The persistence of the cold airmass over the US continued into much of March resulting in no activity for two thirds of the month. However in the final week, North Carolina was affected by a small outbreak of 14 tornadoes. This was due to a small shift in the pattern as a result of the transition into spring, and showed signs of the La Nina weakening. March 27 A small outbreak of 14 tornado occurred in Central NC as a shortwave trough due to a shift in pattern set off a small build up of instability. Great levels of Helicity were present as a result of the shortwave, allowing the relatively short storms(35kft) to rotate though most were weak with only 2 EF2s. April There were 270 tornado reports in April, of which 205 were confirmed. This month surprised meteorologist in how strong the contrast between it and March was in terms of activity, scary similar to the strong contrasts found in 2010 and 2011. April 6-7 On April 4th, numerical models had been consistent in presenting an diving trough into the deep south. Strong advection of moisture from the wet and snowy north was expected to bring moderate instability on the 6th. This, coupled with moderate shear and substantial lift, presented a set up with the potential for some strong storms and a few tornadoes. The most notable of which was on April 6, the most prolific day of the outbreak, when a mid-ranged EF4 destroyed a few residences on the outskirts of Shreveport, LA, killing one. April 11 A sizeable outbreak with little of note. April 18-22 Forecasted several days in advanced thanks to consistent model agreement, a HIGH Risk for Tornadoes was issued for the Tennessee River Valley region at 1200Z on the morning of April 21. Part of an ongoing outbreak that began in the plains, April 21 was the most prolific day with 71 confirmed tornadoes in 24 hours across the Tennessee Valley and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. There were three EF4s recorded during the main event, in which one cut through the city of Chattanooga, killing 32 in addition to the 7 other deaths during the outbreak. April 23-30 The rest of the month was rather calm due to a pattern shift and a strong H pressure stalling over the Florida Peninsula. Thanks to the onshore flow of rich tropical air from the Gulf, temperatures remained well above average leading into May and instability built up substantially. CAPE values were on a daily basis in excess of 6000 J/kg, leading to numerous spin ups in the highly unstable environment. At the same time, numerical models had been pointing towards a sizable trough weeks in advance. With increasing agreement in the models by April 24, a 30% Risk of severe weather was issued for Day 8, valid May 1. The next day, another 30% risk was issued for Day 8, valid May 2. May 2 was especially noted for having high parameters across all models for violent tornadoes. May There were 1,044 tornadoes reported in May, of which 903 were confirmed. This set a record for most tornadoes ever recorded in a single month, breaking the previous record set by April in 2011, and is due in large part to the 2018 Super Outbreak starting May 1 and concluding on May 3, and the outbreak sequence that shortly followed. May 1-3 *'May 1:' For the past couple weeks, models had been showing a red letter event going into may. May 1st, 2nd, and 3rd appeared on GFS and CFS runs with Supercell Composites as high 35. These numbers of course had fluctuated throughout the runs leading up to the dates in question, but remained in the same range. Soon other models began to come into agreement, and preparations were made a week in advance of the coming system. On the Day 8 outlook for April 24th, a 30% risk was highlighted for east-central TX and southeastern OK. The same would be said for Day 8 on April 25th and 26th. Heading into May, a heat wave coupled with a stalled High Pressure of the coast had resulted in extreme levels of CAPE due to dewpoints as high as 80°F. As such, sporadic severe weather occurred over much of the southeast. This necessitated a consistent MRGNL Risk over the gulf states, where extremely heavy rain and hail storms had become almost a daily occurrence. This extreme weather ended up leaving behind a strong cap going into May 1st, of which had its risk lowered from a MDT to an ENHC that morning due to the inversion. However, the extreme instability and strong shear was greater than forecast. As a Dryline developed in West Central TX, boundaries left by storms the previous day provided the necessary trigger as strong mid-to-upper-level shear mixed the air, setting off storms across Central TX and Southern OK. These storms were strong, with four EF4 tornadoes developing across the risk area along with 88 other tornadoes. 34 people died to these storms as they ejected towards the ENE into AR and TN, dropping tornadoes into May 2. *'May 2:' On May 2, a HIGH Risk had been issued as conditions proved extremely favorable for violent, long track tornadoes. Model runs by the NAM and GFS had many forecasters fearing the worst, as the vast area of discrete supercells threatened numerous populated areas, including Houston. A large 60% Sig Tor Risk was highlighted over much of the ArkLaTex region, within a much larger HIGH Risk that encompassed a good majority of the warm sector. Such a large HIGH risk was considered unprecedented at the time, as only a few instances in history could've ever necessitated such large risk areas, including the Super Outbreak of '74. For the rest of the afternoon and into May 3, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee would see 241 tornadoes touch down, 35 of which would be rated EF4(18) and EF5(17). Of which would include the infamous Houston EF5, which claimed 5,797 lives from Brenham to Seabrook. By far the most violent and most numerous single day outbreak on record. *'May 3:' On May 3, a HIGH Risk was issued for much of Mississippi and Alabama. Same as the day before, a vast area of 60% Sig Tor was highlighted in this region. Following a violent MCS that had ejected through the area overnight, a cap had settled in the region for the early morning. By mid morning, another MCS had fired up due to the overwhelming instability present in the capped region, of which was unable to suppress the 7000 J/kg generated by the advection of the upper and mid level jets as well as the mixing of the atmosphere due to the proximity of the surface based low pressure. Because of the morning squalls, similar to 2011, numerous boundaries had developed along the region. At the same time, around noon, supercells began to explode in Louisiana and Mississippi. Ahead of these supercells, more storms plumed into the troposphere. This was due to the gravity waves and outflow converging with the stationary boundaries left by the morning storms. This resulted in a much more expansive outbreak than the likes of 2011. Numbers this day were comparable to the day prior as 219 tornadoes tore through Mississippi and Alabama. Of these was the Deep South Tornado Family, a family of extremely instense tornadoes that originated from one of the first supercells of the day. This Supercell, which formed around 17Z, travelled over 700 miles from western Louisiana to extreme southwestern North Carolina. Along this path it would claim more than 400 lives as it birthed 7 High-end EF3s, 2 EF4s, and one EF5. On more than one occasion did this supercell feature two tornadoes on the ground at the same time, including the Birmingham Twins, and EF4 and EF5 that ravaged Tuscaloosa and Birmingham and many other towns, claiming 246 lives as they tore through the state. Of the 219 tornadoes that touched downt this day, 30 were violent, with 22 EF4 and 8 EF5 tornadoes taking more than 1000 lives. June Out of 707 tornado reports, 427 were confirmed. This set a new record of activity for the month of June, surpassing the original record of 399 in 1992. Category:Tornadoes of 2018 Category:Tornado Seasons